National Research Council / Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education et al. Beyond Six Billion - Forecasting the World's Population. National Academies Press, 2000.

eng

Herausgeber: Rodolfo A Bulatao / John Bongaarts

Beyond Six Billion

Forecasting the World's Population

National Academies Press
2000

Gebunden
368 Seiten
ISBN 9780309069908

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections -- the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized

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world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span, and the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth, but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding our projections.

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